Certainty Is a Trap. Strong Leaders Set an Evidence Threshold and Make Reversible Bets
Four practical questions help leaders weigh incomplete evidence, set a threshold for action, and revise decisions responsibly as new facts emerge.
EXPERT OPINION BY SOREN KAPLAN, WSJ BESTSELLING AUTHOR, KEYNOTE SPEAKER, AND LEADERSHIP STRATEGY ADVISOR
Some of the most important decisions leaders make come with incomplete evidence. You can study the data, test assumptions, and weigh the risks. At some point, you still have to decide without knowing for sure.
That tension is playing out right now in the debate over autism. Autism diagnoses have climbed to 1 in 31 eight-year-olds, up from 1 in 150 in 2000, according to the CDC. Researchers still can’t say how much of the rise in autism diagnoses reflects a true increase versus better detection and screening.
Under the Trump administration, the CDC has revised
Under the Trump administration, the CDC has revised its stance on vaccines and autism, saying that “the statement ‘Vaccines do not cause autism’ is not an evidence-based claim. Scientific studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines contribute to the development of autism. However, this statement has historically been disseminated by the CDC and other federal health agencies within HHS to prevent vaccine hesitancy.”
The World Health Organization says decades of studies show childhood vaccines don’t cause autism.
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Still, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has promised the government will soon identify the causes of autism, suggesting that environmental factors could be behind rising diagnoses. And the White House recently signed an executive order on childhood vaccines that revisits the immunization schedule and widens vaccine research, the Associated Press reported.
Uncertainty fuels the debate
Uncertainty fuels the debate. One side sees the absence of proven harm as evidence of safety. The other sees the absence of proven safety as reason for concern.
Business leaders face their own versions of this problem all the time: how do you make a good decision when the evidence may never give you a definitive answer?
Source: www.inc.com
